Journal of Arid Land


This study presented a simulation-based two-stage interval-stochastic programming (STIP) model to support water resources management in the Kaidu-Konqi watershed in Northwest China. The modeling system coupled a distributed hydrological model with an interval two-stage stochastic programing (ITSP). The distributed hydrological model was used for establishing a rainfall-runoff forecast system, while random parameters were provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. The developed STIP model was applied to a real case of water resources management planning in Kaidu-Konqi watershed, where three scenarios with different water resources management policies were analyzed. The results indicated that water shortage mainly occurred in agriculture, ecology and forestry sectors. In comparison, the water demand from municipality, industry and stockbreeding sectors can be satisfied due to their lower consumptions and higher economic values. Different policies for ecological water allocation can result in varied system benefits, and can help to identify desired water allocation plans with a maximum economic benefit and a minimum risk of system disruption under uncertainty.


optimization; two-stage stochastic programming; uncertainty; water resources management; hydrological model; Kaidu-Konqi watershed; Tarim River Basin

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