Regional Sustainability


The water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) in river basin changes dynamically under climate change, economic development, and technological advancement. Climate change affects hydrological processes and spatial/temporal distribution of water resources; while economic development and technological advancement can also affect the balance of water resources systems. Under climate change, economic development, and technological advancement, it is of great significance to explore the dynamic behavior of WRCC in river basins. This will help to alleviate water resources security issues and build a sustainable water resources system. This study was carried out to evaluate the dynamic WRCC using the “climate, economics, and technology-control objective inversion model”, which used total water consumption, water-use efficiency, and restrained total pollutant control in the water functional area as boundary conditions. This study was conducted on the Keriya River Basin, a sub-catchment located in southern margin of the Taklimakan Desert. The WRCC in the Keriya River Basin in 2015 was calculated, and the trends in the short term (2020), middle term (2030), and long term (2050) were predicted. The results revealed that climate change factors have a positive effect on WRCC in the Keriya River Basin, which leads to an increase in total water resources. Economic and technological development exhibits an overall positive effect, while increasing in water consumption and sewage discharge exhibit a negative effect.

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